Addis Ababa and Mekelle have once again exchanged accusations of initiating military offensives, fueling concerns over the durability of the November 2022 Pretoria peace agreement. Reports indicate the seizure of airports in Tigray by local authorities, following claims of drone strikes in the region. This sequence of events signals a dangerous deterioration in the fragile post-conflict environment, threatening to unravel the cessation of hostilities that ended a two-year civil war.
The Ethiopian federal government, through its state-affiliated media, stated on Thursday that forces aligned with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) launched attacks in the southeastern zone of Tigray and the adjacent Afar region. These claims allege violations of the peace accord, which mandated the disarmament of Tigrayan forces and the withdrawal of non-federal troops from the region. While specific details remain scarce, the official narrative frames these actions as unprovoked aggression undermining reconciliation efforts.
Conversely, Tigrayan authorities have vociferously denied these allegations, instead accusing the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and its allied militias of instigating the hostilities. Sources within the interim Tigrayan administration claim federal forces, potentially augmented by Eritrean elements, are attempting to reassert control over strategic areas. The alleged drone strikes, reportedly targeting civilian infrastructure, have been cited by Mekelle as evidence of a coordinated military campaign by Addis Ababa.
Independent verification of these competing narratives remains challenging. Access to the conflict-affected areas is restricted, and international observers have limited presence. This information vacuum often allows each side to shape the narrative without immediate rebuttal, complicating efforts by regional and international bodies to mediate or even ascertain the facts on the ground. The lack of transparent reporting mechanisms outlined in the peace agreement continues to be a critical vulnerability.
The Pretoria accord, brokered by the African Union, aimed to establish a permanent cessation of hostilities, facilitate humanitarian access, and restore constitutional order in Tigray. Key tenets included the phased disarmament of TPLF combatants, the reintegration of Tigray into the federal system, and the investigation of war crimes. While some progress was made on humanitarian aid and the withdrawal of Eritrean forces was partially observed, lingering distrust and unresolved territorial disputes have consistently threatened its implementation.
The recent flare-up specifically targets strategically significant locations, including airports, which were crucial logistical hubs during the initial conflict. Their control implies an attempt to secure lines of communication and supply, or to deny them to the opposing side. Such actions represent a direct challenge to the peace framework, as demilitarization and the restoration of civilian authority over such infrastructure were central to stabilizing the region.
The international community, including the African Union and the United States, has urged both parties to exercise restraint and adhere to the peace agreement. However, these renewed hostilities underscore the limitations of external pressure when internal grievances and power dynamics remain unresolved. The protracted nature of the conflict and the deep-seated animosities between the TPLF and the federal government mean that a mere ceasefire, without fundamental political reconciliation, is inherently precarious.
The immediate priority must be to de-escalate the situation and establish a neutral verification mechanism to investigate the accusations. Without transparent accountability for alleged violations, confidence in the peace process will continue to erode, increasing the likelihood of a return to full-scale conflict. The humanitarian consequences of such a relapse would be catastrophic, given the millions already displaced and in need of assistance.
As the situation unfolds, the international community watches warily, understanding that the failure to uphold the Pretoria agreement could have destabilizing effects far beyond Ethiopia's borders, impacting regional security and potentially reigniting ethnic tensions across the Horn of Africa. The path to lasting peace in Tigray remains fraught with peril, contingent on both parties' genuine commitment to dialogue over military confrontation.